By Rabbi Ira Youdovin
Chairman, ARZA Rabbinic Council

Rabbis read Israeli election results more closely than most.  We know that beginning the next morning, we’ll be asked to analyze what happened.  And on Shabbat, we’ll have to explain the Israeli electoral process to a congregation of folks who find it as mystifying as how leap years are determined on the Jewish calendar.

This time, Israel’s democratic but dysfunctional electoral system outdid itself.  Kadima, a seemingly dispirited centrist party led by Tzipi Livni, a straight-talking territorial moderate, came away with a one-seat advantage over the highly favored right-wing Likud,, led by Binyamin Neyanyahu, a tough-talking hard-liner.  But Kadima, with 28 Knesset seats, may be unable to cobble together the 61 needed to form a government.  While Likud, with 27, probably will if it can add the 15 seats held by Israel Beiteinu, a party led by Avigdor Lieberman, a loudmouth populist who advocates ethnic cleansing and would require a loyalty oath from every Israeli, including its Palestinian citizens.   Lieberman has called Likud a more likely coalition partner.  But in typical Israeli political fashion, he has also agreed to open negotiations with Livni.

But even a Likud-Israel Beiteinu partnership would need the support of some smaller Orthodox parties.  The largest of these is Shas  (11 sears) whose Guru, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, recently put a curse on Yisrael Beiteinu and its supporters for a variety of transgressions, including advocating civil marriage and denying Yeshiva students the open-end exemptions that shield them from military service.  “Whoever supports Yisrael Beiteinu supports Satan”, the good rabbi opined, casting doubt on how long the two parties would sit peacefully together as coalition partners.  As Rabbi David Hartman likes to say, “God chose the Jews because He never wanted to be bored.”  This election proves The Almighty’s perspicacity.

It’s far too early to understand what this election says about the mindset of Israel’s electorate, or what it means for Israel’s future.  An answer to that latter issue will begin to emerge only when the new government coalition falls into place.  A Likud-led right-wing coalition will present a far different face than a Kadima-led centrist one, although Israel Beiteinu and Shas are likely to hold powerful places in either.  And there’s also the possibility of a national unity government in which Likud and Kadima hold a near-majority of seats, thus reducing the junior partners’ clout by safeguarding against any one of them pulling out and bringing down the government if its parochial demands are not met.

All this lies ahead of us.  Suffice for the moment to take a brief look at two matters that are of great interest to us and our congregants.

1, Did Israel pull to the right? 

Yes, but with an asterisk.  Likud made a dramatic recovery, moving from 12 to 27 seats, and Israel Beiteinu grew from 11 to 15.  But when the combined seats of Likud-Israel Beiteinu are compared with those of Kadima-Labor, the right-wing holds only a one-seat majority, 42-41.  The margin increases slightly when seats held by Habayyit Hayehudi and National Union (right-wing) and Meretz (left-wing) are added in.  But the essential balance between right and left remains.

Perhaps more significant is Livni’s stunning comeback during the campaign’s closing weeks.  When Hamas broke the semi-truce by intensifying its rocket attacks on southern Israel shortly before the elections, it was following an established pattern.  In the winter of 1995-96, Shimon Peres was far ahead in polls predicting the outcome of elections for a successor to the slain Yizhak Rabin.  Having seen that the extreme right was prepared to back up its inflammatory rhetoric with lethal force, Israeli voters were planning to counter by electing their country’s most prominent dove.  But when a series of bloody terrorist attacks made every Israeli a potential target, a frightened electorate turned to Netanyahu. 

This was precisely what the terrorists wanted.  An Israeli government prepared to make generous concessions to achieve peace is an anathema to their rejection of negotiated political solutions.  A hard-line one bolsters their claim that armed resistance in pursuit of total victory is the only means for countering Israeli intransigence.

In this scenario, Livni should have fallen by the electoral wayside.  Kadima was already trailing in the polls.  It had performed poorly in the 2006 war in Lebanon.  Its first leader, Ariel Sharon, was in a coma, and its second, Ehud Olmert, was being forced from office by a financial scandal. 

There is little doubt that the government’s performance in Gaza erased some of the bad memories of Lebanon.  And Netanyahu assuredly lost votes to Lieberman, whose racist solution for dealing with Palestinians is attractive to those seeking simple answers to a complex problem.

But when Election Day arrived, voters gave a plurality to a woman who bluntly stated that she would remove settlements.  And when asked why, she responded, “Because we are a country of laws.”

What does Lieberman’s success portend?  Let me state at the outset that I abhor Lieberman’s demeanor and many of his policies.  Let there be no mistake about that.   At the same time, I hasten to add that those sound bites of his most virulent statements, and televised images of Israeli teenagers inflamed by his rhetoric, tell only part of the story.

Israel Beiteinu is by no means a one-issue party.  Lieberman’s advocacy of civil marriage might earn him an invitation to speak at a URJ Biennial were it not for the other baggage he carries.  And his campaign against Haredim, who recognize the state’s legitimacy only to the extent of exploiting its welfare system, echoes what former JTS Chancellor Rabbi Ismar Schorsch has been saying for years. 

I cite these factors neither to condone nor obscure Lieberman’s intolerable racism, but to suggest that a vote for Israel Beiteinu is not necessarily a vote for expelling Palestinians.  Were that the case, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef would not have wasted a curse on them.  Additionally, ethnic and internecine Jewish tensions play a role.  Yisreal Beiteinu began as a Russian immigrants’ party, and still retains elements of this orientation.

Nevertheless, Lieberman’s racist---and arguably fascist---positions are drawing attention.  Even more significantly, they are being embraced by a growing number of Israelis, particularly the young.  Fifteen seats may represent only 12.5% of the total vote cast and an increase of less than 3 percentage points over the last election.  But any percentage above zero is disturbing, and any increase, however small, is alarming.

A member of my family castigates American Jewish leaders for not speaking out more forcefully against Lieberman’s policies.  Until now, our reticence might be justified on the grounds of non-interference in an election campaign.  We know how agitated we get when Israelis try to tell us how to vote.  It works both ways.

But now that the election is over, it’s of critical importance that we send a clear message to both Livni and Netanyahu that, whatever else they may offer to entice Israel-Beiteinu, even the slightest compromise of the rights of Israel’s Palestinian citizens is unacceptable, and will do serious damage to Israel’s relations with the United States and most other nations of the world, and with our own North American Jewish community. 

Coalition talks are only beginning.  ARZA’s newly-created Rapid Response teams will do its best to keep you abreast of developments as they transpire.  Stay tuned!